04192018Thu

Iran Focus

London, 18 Apr - Chaos is still rampant in Iran’s foreign exchange market a week after the Iranian Government artificially set the currency exchange rate at 42,000 rials to the US dollar.

This move, which Paris-based economist Fereidoun Khavand described as “a very dangerous game”, was an attempt by the Hassan Rouhani administration to control the incredible devaluing of the rial. The rial hit an all-time high of 61,000 rials to the dollar on April 10.

Iran Focus

London, 10 Apr - New data revealed by Iran’s largest banks shows that a banking crisis is happening in the country, with big-name financial institutions experiencing horrific losses and being unable to even pay the interest on deposits.

So far, the banks on the Tehran Stock Exchange have reported operating losses of $4.5 billion; a figure that has only gotten worse in previous years and looks set to continue for the years to come.

This crisis was revealed by all of Iran's ten biggest banks — Tejarat, Saderat, Mellat, Parsian, Sarmayeh, Eghtesad-e Novin, Gardeshgari, Dey, Ghavamin and Iran Zamin — but it’s especially prevalent for Mellat and Saderat banks.

Iran Focus

London, 09 Apr - This weekend, the Iranian rial dropped again against the dollar. This is an effect of the uncertainty regarding a return of economic sanctions.

When the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was agreed, Iran benefited from the lifting of crippling sanctions. However, United States President Donald Trump may soon reimpose these sanctions – or at least some of them.

Trump warned the European signatories of the deal that he would stop issuing waivers on the sanctions if they were unable to fix the numerous flaws it contains. He also called on them to ensure that the Iranian ballistic missile program is addressed – something that Iran managed to keep out of the nuclear deal negotiations by claiming it was a non-nuclear issue.

Iran Focus

London, 10 Apr - With the nomination of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State and John Bolton appointed National Security Advisor, the prospect of sanctions on Iran becoming effective again are much greater now, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc., Societe Generale SA, Royal Bank of Canada, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.

Many banks are now including a so-called 'snapback' plan for Iran in their base-case energy scenarios. Still, they seem assured regarding the impact on oil supplies from the country. Which is surprising, as SocGen sees 500,000 barrels a day of exports at risk; the others, around 350,000. Previously, sanctions cut Iran's production by more than 1.2 million barrels a day at their peak.

Iran Focus

London, 29 Mar - One member of the Iranian parliament has claimed that the Iranian people transferred $30 billion out of the country in the last few months of the Persian calendar year, which ended on March 20.

MP Mohammad Reza Pourebrahimi, the head of the economic committee in Iran’s parliament, made this claim during an interview with the state-affiliated ISNA News Agency.

However, Pourebrahimi did not reveal how this had happened. This is an odd situation as, despite the lifting of certain sanctions under the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, Iranians do not have access to the international banking system. This means that such a transfer can only take place using unconventional methods, like using an exchange dealer or giving your money to an international traveller.

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