Last month we faced a very strange claim by Iran’s Central Bank. Right after that and with the use of the numbers published by the regime’s Central Bank and while all the economic statistics speak about the collapse of the country’s economy and while more than 60 million are living under the poverty line, the regime’s president Ebrahim Raisi admitted that the country is witnessing, ‘the appearance of signs of the end of the recession and the return of economic prosperity.’
Following these claims, some of the regime state-run dailies used it to divert the public opinion for the real situation in the country.
“The country’s economic growth is on the rise, and despite the effects of the coronavirus and sanctions, it has paved the way out of the recession. Controlling and directing liquidity to production, controlling inflation, lowering prices, and stabilizing various markets can bring a complete exit from the recession and bring the economy to the shore of calm.” (State-run news agency ILNA, October 24, 2021)
In mid-September, the head of Iran’s Program and Budget Organization also said: “In the 2022 plan, the main emphasis is on achieving economic growth. We can achieve 8 percent economic growth if we try, and it is possible.”
And the regime’s president in one of his latest expressions about the country’s economic situation and continuing to move towards economic growth and reducing inflation in the country said: “Positive steps have been taken in this regard.”
So, the regime is preparing for the public’s opinions for its demagogy that has been done over the past 42 years more than a hundred times.
For that, the Governor of the Central Bank, in a meeting with the CEO of the International Monetary Fund and the Ministers of Economy, and the heads of the regional financial institutions in the Manap constituency, which was held virtually, said:
“Iran is now on a solid path to economic recovery.” He pointed to the 6.2 percent growth of Iran’s GDP in the second quarter of 2021, “which indicates that the Iranian economy has significantly emerged from the recession and is moving towards recovery.” (State-run news agency ISNA, October 24, 2021)
But the reality of the country is not painting a wonderland about the country’s economy. Economic indicators also show that the investment trend has declined, and the country is suffering from capital depreciation.
This event has worrying consequences at both the economic macro and micro level of the country and threatens the well-being of families. In this regard, an economist said:
“Since the beginning of the 2000s, less investment has been formed in the country every year, and according to the report of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, last year it showed a negative figure of 4.79 percent.
“With 100 trillion tomans ($3.5 billion) of investment in 2020, the lowest amount of investment is registered in the country and shows a significant decrease. The investment gap is so great that even if the annual investment in the country grows by 10 percent in this year, it will reach (the amount of) the 2000s in 2027.” (State-run website Tejarat News, October 14, 2021)
This economic variable is enough to show the depth of the crisis, that even with a huge amount of investment over the next few years, will just reach the situation of a decade ago. But this is just the tip of the iceberg of the country’s economic crisis.
This economic expert then added that the international investors have not anymore, the mood to invest in Iran, because of the regime’s many cases that have led to its sanctions. And the country’s economic substructures are moving rapidly to collapse.
But that is not all the scary story of Iran’s economy has more terrifying chapters. In this regard, Farshad Momeni, an economist, speaking about the quality and knowledge of Raisi’s economic team, said:
“The head of the Program and Budget Organization talks about the elimination of the 4,200 Tomans currency at very low quality. These justifications are enough to dismiss or voluntarily resign him because he showed he has no understanding of the Iranian economy. These absurd arguments even violate the reports of the Program and Budget Organization, the Central Bank, and the Statistics Center.” (State-run daily Tejarat, December 18, 2021)
Although the regime’s economic and monetary officials speak about the end of the recession, this will not detract from the real situation.
All the regime’s economic policies introduced by Raisi’s government are just the repetition of the failed policies over the past 42 years.