03262019Tue

Iran’s Oil Exports

Iran Focus

London, 25 August - The threat of US sanctions is already beginning to affect the demand for crude from some of Iran's key customers. According to preliminary tanker tracking data, oil exports from Iran have fallen steeply during the first half of August.

S&P Global Platts trade flow software’s initial estimates show that Iran oil crude and condensate exports have fallen to 1.68 million b/d in the first 16 days of August, which is down over 600,000 b/d from loadings in July.

Platts cFlow software estimates show that this compares with exports averaging 2.32 million b/d in July as a whole, and 2.10 million b/d in the first 16 days of August. These preliminary numbers show key buyers of Iranian oil are beginning to cut back before US sanctions against Iran's oil sector go in to effect, sources said.

British Airways and Air France

Iran Focus

London, 24 August - British Airways and Air France confirmed on Thursday that they would stop commercial flights to Iran from September for business reasons; mere months after US President Donald Trump announced he would re-impose sanctions on Tehran and the companies that continued to work there.

British Airways, which is owned by the Spanish-registered IAG, said that its London to Tehran service "is currently not commercially viable”, which is why they will halt the flight. The last BA flight from London to Tehran will be on September 22, while the last inbound flight from Tehran will be on September 23.

German carmaker Daimler

Iran Focus

London, 16 August - German carmaker Daimler has shelved its business plans with Iran in light of returning US sanctions, despite attempts by the EU to get businesses to continue investing in Iran, and they’re far from the only firm taking such a move.

These companies are bravely resisting the EU’s demands that European firms ignore US sanctions, which call for all companies to cut ties with Iran or face US secondary sanctions.

Last week, when the first of US nuclear-related sanctions came into force, following Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal in May, the European Commission issued a blocking statute that instructed that all firms continue to do business with Iran, unless they have already withdrawn or have special permission from the EU. If the firms ignore the EU’s warnings, they could face being sued by EU member states.

US oil sanctions on Iran will hit hard

Iran Focus

London, 17 August - Following the imposition of the first round of US sanctions on Iran, there is little evidence of either side changing its stance, which means that the second round of sanctions (this time targeting Iran’s oil exports) will likely go ahead in November and create a much bigger impact on the Iranian economy.

Indeed, Donald Trump has already made clear that he wants all of Iran’s oil exports reduced to zero by November 5, when sanctions would take place.

Any buyers that are granted sanctions waivers by the US (and Trump has so far denied that any will be given out) will still have to make sweeping cut to their Iranian oil and gas imports.

Iran-oil-US-sanctions

Iran Focus

London, 15 August - Iran is making a desperate attempt to avoid incoming US sanctions on its oil revenues by significantly lowering the price of its crude oil exports for its biggest buyers in the Asian market, according to an official from within the country’s oil ministry.

The source, who wished to remain anonymous as they were not cleared to speak on this issue, said: "The discount is part of the nature of the global markets being offered by all oil exporters."

However, many other oil exporting countries are not offering their oil this cheaply, so it seems that this is an attempt to convince its buyers to continue purchasing Iranian oil, even after strict US secondary sanctions come into force in November.

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