06202018Wed

US Confrontation With Iran Is Inevitable

Iran Focus

London, 28 Sep - A US confrontation with Iran seems inevitable which means that oil prices will soar, according to a commodities expert.

Kirk Spano wrote an op-ed for Seeking Alpha in which he asserted that Donald Trump is already ramping up the pressure on the Iranian Regime and that as soon as the first shot is fired, oil prices will surge because supply will be disrupted.

This is not the first article that Spano wrote on the subject. In mid-September he wrote a piece called "An Iran War is Coming - Buy Oil Stocks Now" which was criticised by some as “clickbait” or “inflammatory” with some outright dismissing the idea of war with Iran. In his new article, Spano is using Trump’s speech to United Nations General Assembly as evidence.

He wrote: “This week, the President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, gave a speech to the United Nations that was largely focused on Iran as a global threat. If that is not a harbinger and support for my Iran war thesis, then I don't know what is.”

US-Iran Conflict

In the speech, Trump identified the Iranian Regime as a “corrupt dictatorship” whose main exports are “violence, bloodshed, and chaos” and whose main victims are their own people. He addressed that the Iranian mullahs use their wealth (much of it looted from the Iranian people) to fund terrorism, destabilise the Middle East, and prop up the ailing Bashar al-Assad dictatorship. Trump also criticised Iran’s nuclear programme and the failing nuclear deal.

Trump said: “It is time for the entire world to join us in demanding that Iran's government end its pursuit of death and destruction. It is time for the regime to free all Americans and citizens of other nations that they have unjustly detained. And above all, Iran's government must stop supporting terrorists, begin serving its own people, and respect the sovereign rights of its neighbours."

This, Spano said, is a call to arms. He believes that Trump would support an Iranian uprising based on Trump’s comments that the Regime fears the Iranian people much more than the military might of the US.

Trump said: “This is what causes the regime to restrict Internet access, tear down satellite dishes, shoot unarmed student protestors, and imprison political reformers.”

Three Options

There are three main ways that Spano thinks Trump could use to confront the Regime; fighting a proxy war, supporting an uprising, or direct conflict.

Proxy wars: This is already happening, with the US (or US-backed troops) fighting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

Spano said: “Any analyst can see that Iran's military is stretched pretty thin right now though. Destroying supply lines and targeting the IRGC throughout the region would be blood sport for the US and Israel if the time comes - frankly, I believe it's a matter of when not if.”

Supporting an uprising: This is a promising scenario as it can be done in conjunction with the first one.

Spano said: “If the Iranian people once again try to take their country to real democracy, not the fake, manipulated, theocratic garbage they have now, then the support of Special Forces could make the next uprising successful versus the horrible outcomes in 2009 of the brutally put down Iranian Green Movement.”

Direct conflict: This is something that Spano thinks would be the worst option, because of the potential civilian cost, but it is also the least likely to occur.

Spano said: “In my opinion, the U.S. and Israel should do everything possible to support an uprising and the destruction of the IRGC. I believe many, if not most, analysts in the administration agree.”

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