News On Iran & Its NeighboursSyriaAssad's Heavy Price to Pay for Iranian Intervention

Assad’s Heavy Price to Pay for Iranian Intervention

-

Bashar al-Assad met with Ali Khamenei in Tehran

Iran Focus

London, 09 April – One unfortunate fact about the Syrian civil war is that it would have fizzled out years ago had it not been for foreign interventions. In particular, the intervention of Iran. The Syrian forces fighting on the side of President Bashar al Assad would have been long defeated had they not been supported by Iranian forces.

Russian forces have also provided Assad’s government with crucial support.

Now that the opposition factions have lost, the Iranian and Russian differences are coming to the forefront. They both have different ways in which they want to move forward.

This is creating further turmoil in the country, especially for the very many people that have been displaced because of the war. Recovery – both economic and political – is suffering as a result.

Iran is in a very delicate position. In fact, it is the weakest it has ever been because of crippling economic sanctions, increasing international pressure and domestic unrest. It is for this reason that Iran is pinning its hopes on investments in Syria.

Iran is desperate for Assad to remain in power in Syria. Its whole future relies on his power. Assad knows that Iran is desperate and that it plans to have a political say in Syria. Assad also knows that Iran will undoubtedly try to spread its influence across the country in an aggressive way. No doubt in a more aggressive way than Russia.

And it cannot be forgotten that a large part of Syria’s oil and trade comes from Iran.

In exchange for consolidating Assad’s position, Iran wants something tangible. And Iran’s strategy is clear. By getting heavily involved with Syria’s military and government, is it obviously trying to weaken Russia’s position.

Iran has invested very heavily in Syria – billions of dollars per year plus extensive training to thousands upon thousands of Shiite militias. Iran’s human loss on the field has also been significant. And it expects Assad to give Iran what it needs in return. Iran believes that because it put more into the civil war than Russia, then it should naturally be given more back.

Similar to its strategy in Iraq, Iran is intercepting local services and communities in Syria to gain support. It has constructed medial and education centres in communities and provided much needed services.

Yet Assad is still hesitant to follow through on his promises to Iran in terms of trade concessions. It appears that the Assad government prefers the Russian approach that is much less about taking over politically and economically. The Russian approach is softer and much more accommodating, and it presents less risk to Syria.

Iran may not achieve its objectives in Syria. It has a strong competitor and it is being held back by sanctions and domestic and international pressure. It is very clear that Iran’s intervention on behalf of the Syrian government is something that Assad will have to pay a heavy price for. A price that may be to0 costly for the future of his country if it is ever to recover politically and economically. And if it is ever to re-establish relations with Gulf states.

Latest news

Raisi’s Presenditial Run: An Explainer

Iranian Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raisi has announced his candidacy for the presidential election in June to much controversy. In a...

How Iran’s Economy Was Destroyed by the Mullahs

The Iranian government has, through warmongering, terrorism, and institutionalized corruption, destroyed the country’s economy, leaving 80% of Iranians in poverty. The...

Unemployment in Iran a Problem With Political and Social Dimensions

The most important problem of the next decade in Iran is the problem of unemployment, a problem that can...

Iran’s Inefficient Government

After World War II many countries around the world started development and growth of their economic power, but Iran...

Iran’s State Media: Which JCPOA Is To Be Revived in the Vienna Talks?

In Iran, the two political currents, if we could call them so, are fighting with each other about the...

Iran’s Nurses Struggling To Cope With COVID-19 and Make a Living Forced To Migrate

The phenomenon of migration of Iranian nurses to other countries already existed, but with the outbreak of the coronavirus...

Must read

Iran tells U.N. it wants nuclear fuel first – envoys

Reuters: Iran has told the U.N. nuclear watchdog it...

Iran newspaper closure seen as squeeze on critics

Reuters: The only thing that surprised Abdolreza Tajik when...

You might also likeRELATED
Recommended to you