by Pooya Stone
Iran’s best-case scenario for coronavirus (COVID-19) predicts a death toll of 12,000, but the worst-case means that 3.5 million people could die, according to outcomes forecast by an Iranian student research group.
To achieve the lowest number of deaths, the government will have to ensure that 80% of the population remains at home, except for key workers, like the medical staff. The projections show that this path will slow the number of infections to roughly 120,000 by April 1. This quarantine would need to take place from today because the current death toll is 11,500, according to the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK).
A middle scenario, with just 50% of people staying at home, means that 300,000 will be infected and 110,000 will die.
However, if the authorities keep refusing to enact a public quarantine, which is done solely to make it look like they are in control and that Iran has few cases, 65% of people will be infected and millions will die.
50 new cases and six deaths every hour
The government wants to downplay the scale of the coronavirus outbreak and especially the death toll, but the correct statistics are leaking and even some officials have been admitting figures close to the truth.
Kianoush Jahanpour, head of the Public Relations and Information Centre of Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, said: “Every hour 50 people contract coronavirus and every 10 minutes a person loses their life due to coronavirus.”
While the former Chief Executives of the Health Insurance Organization under president Hassan Rouhani advocated for public quarantines, saying that unless they restrict urban and suburban traffic quickly, the coronavirus will not only threaten people’s lives but also the regime’s future.
Another MP told Rouhani that “it is necessary to obligate and legally bind everyone to stay at home as a need for general health and strategically confronting the crisis”.
Despite all this, Rouhani refused to impose a quarantine, claiming that is a conspiracy by anti-revolutionists to shut down the economy. However, he certainly insisted that there should be more security forces on the streets, which indicates that the authorities are more scared of an uprising than of the coronavirus. This is because he knows that in a situation like this, the people will unite against the government.
The MEK wrote: “The unity of the people can be the base for the foundation of Popular Councils. The reality is that the quarantine of cities will strengthen the feeling of solidarity among the people and the Iranian regime is very afraid of this. For this reason, it is very clear that the regime always considers its security situation and does not like to lose control of the cities with the quarantine of the cities.”