One of the main news in Iran last week was the leaked audio file from the regime’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who frankly discussed the behind-the-scenes maneuvers by the regime.
This file has stirred hot debates in the ruling body, many of the officials especially from the Zarif’s rival faction the regime’s principlists called him a traitor and asked for his trial.
As the regime is trapped between the upcoming presidential election and its nuclear case, many experts said that the revelation of this tape is because of the supreme leader’s decision to expunge the so-called reformist faction in the hope to get rid of them and have the possibility to deal with the social consequences of the election, because the regime as many of them are saying no longer has the capacity to tolerate two crises.
But as it shows this was a huge mistake and has big security and strategical consequences for the regime, which are not ending even after a week, since the revelation of this tape.
The state-run website Tabnak about this security and strategical mistake on May 2, 2021 wrote: “The introduction of the words ‘diplomacy’ and ‘field’ (referring to the regime’s interference outside the country) into the country’s political literature and the formation of a sharp confrontation between the two are considered to be the most important outcome of the publication of this audio file from a hostile medium (referring to Iran International).”
About the regime’s two main challenges, it added: “According to many experts, the release of this file coincides with the intensive holding of the Vienna talks and also on the eve of the formation of the electoral atmosphere in the country, is to disrupt Iran’s important nuclear deal with major world powers.
“On the one hand, the incomplete publication of this interview in the midst of negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, known commonly as the Iran nuclear deal or Iran deal (JCPOA) with the aim of activating JCPOA’s staunch opponents inside the country to confront some politicians with the diplomacy team and bobtailing the negotiations, and the creation of the dual of the ‘field’ and ‘diplomacy’ can be considered as the main action against national interest and made this hypothesis more prominent than other hypotheses.
“On the other hand, since gaining power at any cost, even if it undermines national interests, has infiltrated the country’s political arena, the simultaneous publication of this file on the eve of the most important political and social event of the Islamic Republic is followed by two goals; disappointing of the people about the outcome of the ballot box and the induction of its ineffectiveness in decision-making processes, and it is not unexpected that part of the political current will benefit from the reduction of popular participation at the ballot box in order to gain power.”
“But certainly, regardless of whether the release of the audio file of the head of the country’s diplomatic apparatus was done in order to achieve any of the aforementioned goals, the main loser in this field is the national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Because achieving any of the goals behind this destructive action – whether the goal is to reduce participation or to thwart the JCPOA negotiations – will mean nothing more than slaughtering the national interests of the country.” (Tabnak, May 2, 2021)
Another state-run website Quds Online has showed the regime’s fear about these two main concerns very clearly. In an article entitled “A strategic mistake and its consequences” on May 2, 2021, it attacked Zarif and wrote:
“This bitter event has two aspects to consider. Firstly, how this audio file become public and secondly, the strategic mistake of the Minister of foreign affairs, which is more important than the first one.
“Doesn’t Mr. Zarif know that these remarks during the nuclear talks, which are aimed at lifting sanctions, will weaken Iran’s relations with its strategic allies such as Russia? Wouldn’t a ruthless expression against the strategy of resistance (referring to the regime’s meddling in the Middle East) be a pretext for the enemy to exploit from it?
“The evidence for this claim is exactly [former US Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo’s tweet. He wrote: ‘Our Administration’s exquisite strike on Qasem Soleimani had a massive impact on Iran and the Middle East. You don’t have to take my word for it. Ask @JZarif.’
“In fact, Zarif’s multi-hour interview sent a message of discord on the home front and the conflict between ‘field’ and ‘diplomacy.’ Unfortunately, Zarif speaks against the basic principles of foreign policy and national security.
“Bipolarization or shaping false dichotomies is the scenario of the pro-Western current in the run-up to the elections. This approach was first introduced with the dichotomies wheel of economy-centrifuge in the 2013 election. Over the years, government officials have repeatedly evoked dichotomies such as negotiation and war, interaction and confrontation in society to avoid accountability.
“From this point of view, Zarif’s remarks are exactly the desired spark of the pro-Western current for the polarization of the field and diplomacy in society. That is, the false dualization of the wheel of livelihood and the wheel of resistance in the 2021 elections.” (State-run website Quds Online, May 2, 2021)
There many like these two articles speaking about this event and its consequences but what important is that they all are pointing to the two main regime’s concerns, the upcoming election and the nuclear deal negotiations which can each be the first spark of protests of a starving nation, which does not care about any of them.