Iran Nuclear NewsIAEA says Iran probably 3-8 years off nuclear bomb

IAEA says Iran probably 3-8 years off nuclear bomb


Reuters: Iran is probably three to eight years away from producing a nuclear bomb if it so chooses, the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said on Thursday.
By Mark John

LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) – Iran is probably three to eight years away from producing a nuclear bomb if it so chooses, the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said on Thursday.

Underlining what he said was the growing risk of a major confrontation between the West and Iran, International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed ElBaradei appealed for the two sides to restart negotiations on a compromise as soon as possible.

“I tend, based on our analysis, to agree with people like John Negroponte and the new director of the CIA, who are saying that even if Iran wanted to go for a nuclear weapon, it would not be before the end of this decade or sometime in the middle of the next decade. In other words three to eight years from now,” ElBaradei told a news conference in Luxembourg.

“Iran needs to suspend its enrichment activities as a confidence-building measure but the international community should do its utmost to engage Iran in comprehensive dialogue,” ElBaradei told a conference on nuclear non-proliferation.

The IAEA said in a report on Wednesday that Iran was making substantial advances in uranium enrichment. Several months ago, ElBaradei predicted Iran was four to eight years away from the capability to produce an atom bomb.

The Islamic Republic denies seeking nuclear weapons and says its programme is aimed purely at generating electricity.

Iranian news agencies quoted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday as saying Iran’s nuclear programme was moving ahead despite Western pressure to halt it.

“With the backing of the Iranian nation we are not afraid of the enemies’ … psychological warfare, and with God’s help we have come close to our ultimate goals,” he said.


Major powers last year offered Iran trade, technical and other incentives to suspend uranium enrichment. But negotiations proved fruitless and were called off before the U.N. Security Council imposed a first set of sanctions on Tehran.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told parliament in Berlin that offer was still on the table, but if Iran did not meet its international obligations “the Security Council of the United Nations will continue to act decisively”.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana has been charged with assessing the scope for returning to negotiations. He is expected to meet chief Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in Madrid late next week.

Washington is talking about a third round of sanctions after Iran ignored a fresh U.N. deadline this week to halt enrichment.

An EU presidency statement “noted with great concern” the new IAEA report and appealed to Tehran to reconsider its policy and comply with the international community’s demands.

The IAEA report, like predecessors, said the agency had seen no evidence that Iran was trying to “weaponise” nuclear material or of undeclared nuclear facilities operating in the country.

But ElBaradei voiced concern Tehran was moving towards confrontation with the international community by accelerating its nuclear programme, and said his top priority was to prevent Iran achieving industrial-scale production of enriched uranium.

ElBaradei sought to clarify controversial comments last week that the Western policy of demanding full suspension to prevent Iran obtaining nuclear knowledge had been “overtaken by events” because Iran now appeared to have enrichment expertise.

“It was simply to express concern that we are moving towards Iran building capacity and knowledge without the agency being able to clarify the nature or scope of that programme,” he said.

A diplomat close to the IAEA said ElBaradei was not trying to undermine the Security Council or the United States.

“He’s just asking these leaders to deal with reality. He is pleading for direct dialogue, between the U.S. and Iran in particular, to resolve the situation now … instead of posturing while the number of centrifuges goes up.”

(Additional reporting by Mark Heinrich in Vienna, Paul Taylor in Brussels, Madeline Chambers in Berlin, Tehran newsroom)

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