The Telegraph: America must step up sanctions and bring “a renewed sense of urgency” to halting Iran’s nuclear programme even as it hopes the inauguration of a new president in Tehran will lead to détente, the US Senate will say next week.
The Telegraph
America must step up sanctions and bring “a renewed sense of urgency” to halting Iran’s nuclear programme even as it hopes the inauguration of a new president in Tehran will lead to détente, the US Senate will say next week.
In a letter obtained by The Daily Telegraph, 76 senators from both parties urge the White House to offer Iran no quarter despite the softer rhetoric of the newly sworn in President Hassan Rouhani.
“Until we see a significant slowdown of Iran’s nuclear activities, we believe our nation must toughen sanctions and reinforce the credibility of our option to use military force at the same time as we fully explore a diplomatic solution to our dispute with Iran,” the senators write.
The Obama administration has taken a wait-and-see approach to Mr Rouhani, who won a surprise election victory after promising to end years of economic turmoil caused by Western sanctions.
Congress, however, is moving ahead with an aggressive new round of sanctions.
The House of Representatives voted this week 400-20 for measures designed to put pressure on the few remaining buyers of Iranian oil and to choke off Tehran’s access to its dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
The Senate is expected to pass its own bill in September ahead of the next expected round of diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the six-nation bloc of the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China.
In the letter to President Barack Obama, the senators note that Mr Rouhani has “pledged re-engagement” with the international community but warn “Iran has used negotiations in the past to stall for time”.
“We urge you to bring a renewed sense of urgency to the process,” the senators write to Mr Obama. “We need to understand quickly whether Tehran is at last ready to negotiate seriously.”
A senior Senate aide said that the letter, which was spearheaded by Senators Robert Menendez and Lindsey Graham, was intended to temper the optimism of some US officials that Mr Rouhani’s inauguration would lead to a diplomatic breakthrough.
“Soft noises of Tehran changing its tune is one thing; a concrete action of stepping back from the nuclear precipice is a much different thing,” he said.
Both Iranian and Western negotiators are focused on two competing timelines.
The first is how long until Iran reaches a “critical nuclear capability”, the capacity to produce weapons grade uranium so quickly it would be undetectable to western intelligence.
The second is how long Iran’s economy can withstand the severe sanctions regime and especially the stranglehold it places on access to foreign currency reserves needed to prop up the Iranian rial.
“The central question is which comes first: Iran reaching economic collapse or Iran reaching critical nuclear capability?” said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank.
“The single most important piece of intelligence for the US may not be about Iranian nuclear physics – it may have more to do with Iranian economics.”
Analysts and Western intelligence are constantly working to produce estimates of both timelines.
A major report by the Institute for Science and International Security this month suggested that Iran’s nuclear programme is likely to reach a critical stage by June 2014.
Its economic situation is difficult to assess but under the current sanctions regime, Iran is widely believed to have at least a few years of foreign currency reserves left.
US lawmakers hope that by stepping up current sanctions they can increase economic pressure and reduce the amount of time Iran has left to negotiate.
“There is a broad consensus that to get a negotiated deal with the Iranians, massively intensified sanctions are needed to accelerate the date at which their economy goes over the cliff,” said Mr Dubowitz.
The small group of representatives who opposed the House sanctions bill this week argued that the US should use Mr Rouhani’s inauguration as a chance to reset the relationship with Iran.
“Why aren’t we at least curious to find out whether or not President Rouhani means that he wants to pursue this course of peace?” said Representative Keith Ellison, a Democrat.
Some analysts have suggested, however, that the threat of new sanctions could strengthen Mr Rouhani’s hand if he intends to try to convince Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, to negotiate.
Full text: Senators’ letter to Barack Obama on Iran sanctions
Dear Mr President:
With the election of Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian people signaled their clear dissatisfaction with Iran’s government and its policies. We hope such a surprising and convincing electoral outcome will persuade Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to abandon Iran’s nuclear weapons quest. But until we see a significant slowdown of Iran’s nuclear activities, we believe our nation must toughen sanctions and reinforce the credibility of our option to use military force at the same time as we fully explore a diplomatic solution to our dispute with Iran.
We deeply sympathize with the plight of the Iranian people, who have suffered under the Khamenei regime. We note that President-elect Rouhani has pledged re-engagement with the P5+1 and promised to bring transparency to Iran’s nuclear program. At the same time, Iran has used negotiations in the past to stall for time, and in any event, Khamenei is the ultimate decision-maker for Iran’s nuclear program. Moreover, Iran today continues its large-scale installation of advanced centrifuges. This will soon put it in the position to be able to rapidly produce weapons-grade uranium, bringing Tehran to the brink of a nuclear weapons capability.
Accordingly, Mr. President, we urge you to bring a renewed sense of urgency to the process. We need to understand quickly whether Tehran is at last ready to negotiate seriously. Iran needs to understand that the time for diplomacy is nearing its end. We implore you to demand immediate serious moves on Iran’s part. Iran should move quickly toward compliance with United Nations Security Council resolutions demanding it suspend enrichment. Iran must cease installing centrifuges, agree to the removal of 20 percent enriched uranium from Iran, and cease work on the heavy water reactor being built in Arak.
We believe there are four strategic elements necessary to achieve resolution of this issue: an explicit and continuing message that we will not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapons capability, a sincere demonstration of openness to negotiations, the maintenance and toughening of sanctions, and a convincing threat of the use of force that Iran will believe. We must be prepared to act, and Iran must see that we are prepared.
Mr. President, we share your conviction that Iran must not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. We want you to know that you will have our support in doing all you can to resolve on an urgent basis this most pressing challenge to international security.
Sincerely,
Senator Robert Menendez
Senator Lindsey Graham
Senator Robert P. Casey Jr.
Senator Roy Blunt
Senator Tim Kaine
Senator Kelly Ayotte
List of Cosigners (76)
1. Graham
2. Menendez
3. Ayotte
4. Blunt
5. Kaine
6. Casey
7. Boozman
8. Crapo
9. Flake
10. Ron Johnson
11. Burr
12. Manchin
13. Roberts
14. Grassley
15. Moran
16. Cornyn
17. Inhofe
18. Hoeven
19. Isakson
20. Begich
21. Coons
22. Cardin
23. Hatch
24. Wicker
25. Murray
26. Hagan
27. Mikulski
28. Fischer
29. Lee
30. Thune
31. Risch
32. Collins
33. Portman
34. Schatz
35. Stabenow
36. Cruz
37. Rubio
38. Schumer
39. Markey
40. Donnelly
41. Nelson
42. Heller
43. Pryor
44. Coats
45. Gillibrand
46. Bennet
47. Vitter
48. Chambliss
49. Enzi
50. McCaskill
51. Barrasso
52. Toomey
53. McConnell
54. Brown
55. Warner
56. Reed
57. Blumenthal
58. Hirono
59. Cochran
60. Shaheen
61. Whitehouse
62. Scott
63. King
64. Cantwell
65. Merkley
66. Klobuchar
67. Johanns
68. Franken
69. Sessions
70. Landrieu
71. Alexander
72. McCain
73. Chiesa
74. Heitkamp
75. Murphy
76. Warren