The consequences of the sanctions on Iran’s bankrupt economy and the unfortunate outcome of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the JCPOA, on the one hand, and the uncertainty of the prospects of Iran’s Vienna talks with world powers, on the other, have caused panic among Iran’s state-run media and the country’s rulers.
Speaking about their concerns, they are asking the new government of Ebrahim Raisi to follow and obey the will of the world powers.
As a reason for such a request, they are pointing to the bad economic situation, which is tightening every day, and there no chance of this government to solve these problems and normalize the livelihood situation of the people.
And if they do not obey the world power’s request, they must face much severe political and economic pressure, while having not the ability and power to withstand such a situation.
The state-run daily Arman took a step further from the economic and political pressure, warned and remembered the regime that if they do not obey these requests spoken in the Vienna JCPOA talks, there is the possibility that the regime may again include under Chapter 7 of the Security Council, which means that it has been formally recognized as a ‘threat to world peace and security’, in which case it Requests all UN member states to implement all coercive measures it has adopted against you.’
This newspaper, affiliated with Hassan Rouhani’s government, recalled the case of Iraq being attacked, noting that being under Chapter 7 means that it could ‘begin a mounting process of escalating pressure that could lead to military action. And that under the umbrella of the protection of international law, the United Nations and public opinion.’
Concerns about this situation have prompted the state-run daily Arman to warn the Raisi and his government, ‘should not fall into the trap of factional games,’ and should not allow that, ‘biased political analyses’ of the media, ‘to minimize the consequences of re-engaging with the Security Council in the next government.’ (Arman daily, 26 June 2021)
Etemad newspaper, while acknowledging the current dire economic situation and the danger that threatens the clerical government in this regard and the social uprising, advised, especially the elements of the new government, not to insist on the current position and, ‘if the parties insist on the current positions, the seventh round of negotiations, will be also fruitless.’
A subject that according to the author of this article, is dangerous for the current state of the economy, while it will have much worse and unpredictable consequences for both the economy and the regime, because the economy, ‘is in a complicated strait’ and every day ‘the continuation of sanctions will cause great damage to Iran’s economy, and assessments show that it is not possible to continue the current situation for a long time.’
Another direction that this state-run newspaper is concerned about is that the UN nuclear watchdog’s chief ‘Rafael Grossi submits a negative report to the Board of Governors to change the situation so that the Board of Governors declares it impossible to resolve the Iranian case through the IAEA and refers the matter to the UN Security Council.’ (Etemad, June 26, 2021)
Based on these concerns, Jahan-e-Sanat daily advised the Raisi to consider these facts: ‘There are some facts that Raisi should pause about and think carefully about the consequences of these facts before saying or doing anything.
‘One of the realities that have obscured Iran these days is the outcome of indirect talks between Iran and the Americans. The fact is that the Iranian economy, with the continuation of sanctions and without sanctions, will have at least two forms and nature with significant differences in terms of foreign exchange earnings. Iran is no longer alive enough to include more resilience in the equations, and that is what if being ignored will face the future with unintended consequences. Unknown days and unforeseen consequences will make things difficult.’ (Jahan-e-Sanat, June 26, 2021)
The concerns cited by the media affiliated with the Rouhani faction are real and indicate that the government is at a crossroads of choice, and, in fact, a dead end is predicted.
Resalat newspaper wrote about the Americans’ expectations from the regime: ‘The Democrats’ view of the nuclear deal with Iran is clear. The leaders of the Democratic Party believe that if they want to return to the JCPOA, they must get new and more concessions from the Islamic Republic! The Democrats’ new concessions mean perpetuating the time limits set by the JCPOA and, subsequently, missile disarming Iran. This view was institutionalized among Democrats even during Trump’s presidency.’ (Resalat, June 26, 2021)
Before the third round of debates, Hassan Rouhani asked the candidates to state their position on the JCPOA: ‘Do you agree with the JCPOA or not, say it.” (State TV News Channel, June 9, 2021)
In the third debate, Raisi explicitly responded to Rouhani, saying that he agreed with the JCPOA, ‘I explicitly say that we adhere to the JCPOA as a contract that has been ratified with the 9 clauses of the Supreme Leader. Like any obligation and any contract, governments must abide by it, but you cannot implement the JCPOA. The JCPOA needs a powerful government to be implemented.’ (State TV News Channel, June 12, 2021)
At that time, some believed that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had expressed his intentions by the language of his preferred candidate, and it became clear that he wanted to be directly involved in the JCPOA negotiation without any middleman. Just as Khamenei started negotiations in Oman during Ahmadinejad’s time and away from his eyes.
In his first press conference on June 21, Raisi also said about the current negotiations of the JCPOA: ‘We will pursue interaction with the whole world and with all countries of the world as a broad and balanced principle of interaction in foreign policy, God willing, and in the negotiations of any negotiation in which national interests are guaranteed, this negotiation will definitely be supported.’ (State TV News Channel, June 21, 2021)
The fact is that Iran’s regime, in a state of economic stagnation and facing an explosive society, seeks to loosen some of the sanctions at any cost. But the other side of this desk also has conditions that if accepted by Khamenei means new poison chalices and ‘endless degradation.