While the faction attributed to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, which is now emerging as Ebrahim Raisi’s government, has been arguing and opposing the Vienna talks with world powers over its nuclear program, it now seems to have no choice but to come to the Vienna talks table.
The transfer of power took place in the Iranian government, and one of the issues that should be considered in the foreign policy of the Iranian government is the nuclear issue and the Vienna talks or the JCPOA.
Negotiations that have remained unresolved since June 20, 2021, and after the end of the sixth round, and so far, no decisive policy has been adopted by the Iranian government or at least has not become public.
What is leaking to the media from the lower echelons of the regime’s government shows that the head of government must also sit in the same hot chair as the regime’s former president Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister Mohamad Javad Zarif.
In other words, although the faction attributed to Khamenei rejects the JCPOA talks by one hand, it is forced to pull it back with its other hand.
‘Negotiating with the West is a decision that political sovereignty must make, and the president is mostly the one who implements this decision,’ the Setareh-e-Sobh newspaper wrote in an article titled ‘The Need to De-escalate Foreign Policy.’
In other words, it is assumed that the political rule of Velayat-e-Faqih, headed by Khamenei, has no choice but to negotiate with the West over its nuclear program.
In another article entitled ‘The United States will likely want more concessions from Iran,’ Setareh-e Sobh eloquently shows the weak and low position of the Iranian government in the possible Vienna negotiations.
This newspaper highlighted the regime’s sickness in such a way that, “Iran should try to take advantage of the same limited concessions that the United States gives to Iran, the new negotiations will differ in content from the Obama administration, the political system should retreat somewhat from its position, there is no other way for the country.”
In another article on the Vienna talks, this newspaper wrote, “now that the government has been consolidated, the opposites to JCPOA have gradually come to terms with the facts and are giving the green light for the talks.”
According to most of the media of the Iranian government and the world and other apparatus of this regime, this government cannot do anything in the economic field without lifting the sanctions because they block any maneuver by the regime.
In addition, the failure to reach an agreement because of the explosive economic and social conditions, the society is a potential threat and danger for the regime and any of which could become a real threat to the Iranian government if the Vienna talks do not take place.
The Farhikhtegan newspaper, quoting a government expert named Diako Hosseini, highlighted this need as follows: “The lifting of sanctions is a priority in the presidency, not the revival of the JCPOA. The generalities of the mainstream government’s approach to the talks are clear, and we will soon see the resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and other countries.”
But with all these assumptions, there is always a sign of contraction and intensification of a conflict with the international community by the Iranian government as an option, albeit with a lower percentage of probability, and it should not be removed from the equations of the Vienna talks in general.
As Diako Hosseini says about the global consensus against the Iranian government in the process of acquiring a nuclear weapon: “The second process goes back to the common concern of these countries (Western countries, Russia and China) about the Iranian government’s acquisition of nuclear weapons.
“There is a concern between China and Russia that if the JCPOA is canceled and international oversight of Iran’s nuclear activities is lifted, Iran could approach the atomic bomb, and if IAEA oversight in the form of IAEA and safeguards is lost, then there is a concern. China and Russia will increase, and it will be possible to reach a consensus against the Iranian government.”