Since the beginning of the Iranian regime’s nuclear crisis, which was revealed by the Iranian opposition group, the MEK, the policies of this case have been determined directly by the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and the games played by the different governments are just a show to buy time and deceive the Western governments.
This is something that is now continuing in Ebrahim Raisi’s government. All the negotiators are obliged to follow the orders and the policies dictated by the regime’s supreme leader.
However, the regime faces many problems so that even the orders of the supreme leader and his insistence on the continuation of the nuclear program will not help them.
All the sides from the US to the EU and even the regime have announced that they desire to restart and continue the JCPOA but even in Obama’s government, the US was unable to meet their obligations to the JCPOA because they were faced with an obstacle of the initial US sanctions imposed before the JCPOA, which were imposed because of the regime’s missile, human rights violations and support of global terrorism and has nothing to do with the regime’s nuclear case. This is something that will continue even if the JCPOA will be revived once again, in Biden’s government and this US government has not had the power to remove any of them.
In addition, in Trump’s government, the US has imposed many new sanctions which will continue too, and the sad news for the regime was that even China and Russia accepted the implementation of a weak JCPOA despite all the regime economic auctions and one-sided concessions.
Under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, UN arms embargoes on Iran were lifted last fall. The Trump administration has re-imposed arms embargoes on Iran by issuing a new executive order so that any country that intends to trade arms with Iran will be sanctioned by the United States.
The Biden government has not yet decided to repeal the previous executive instructions, stating that similar regulations had been enacted in previous governments even before the JCPOA, but that it could not repeal them.
Assuming an agreement to revive the JCPOA, the US Congress could impose similar sanctions on Iran under other headings, such as terrorism, missiles, region interference, and human rights, to prevent the JCPOA from being implemented.
In such a situation, the regime is unable to hold direct talks with the US and must negotiate with the P4 + 1 countries.
In the absence of the United States, none of the world powers can solve the problem, nor can they fully implement the JCPOA without the United States. The reality of the current global economy is that the United States accounts for about 25 percent of the global economy and about 80 percent of global trade is in US dollars, so trade with the United States is a priority for all the world’s most influential countries.
No country can be trusted as a mediator between Iran and the United States. The United States trusts the three European countries as mediators, while Iran does not trust the Europeans, and in return Iran trusts Russia and China as mediators, but the United States considers these two countries rivals and enemies.
Since Trump’s exit from the JCPOA, the regime’s economy has been under the most severe economic sanctions, with devastating effects. Some of its officials have also stated that the government is smuggling oil and smuggling foreign currency.
The problem is that the government of Raisi and no other government will be able to run the economy by smuggling. The economy based on smuggling will lead to the growing spread of corruption and poverty, inflation.
The JCPOA was implemented only in the final year of the Obama administration, from late 2015 to the beginning of 2017. And the implementation of JCPOA in that short period was incomplete, and the regime was not able to benefit from its created economic opportunities, because it wasted the funds on malign activities.
With more than $27 trillion, Iran has the fifth-largest natural resource wealth in the world, even more than China. China’s GDP at the time of the Iranian Revolution in 1979 was $191 billion, which has reached $1,400 billion over the past 40 years, which is about 14% of the world economy. At present, Iran’s GDP with a population of more than 85 million is about $191 billion, while the GDP of the small neighboring UAE country with a population of 9 million is $360 billion.
China has rescued more than one billion people out of poverty over the past 40 years, raising its per capita income from $195 to $10,500, while according to official figures, at least 30 percent of Iranians live below the poverty line.
This is the only solution for the regime to secure its future which of course is all in contradiction with the principle of the regime which is based on repression, corruption, and looting.
- Efforts to revive the JCPOA to lift economic sanctions, change the international environment, reduce tensions with the United States, open relations with world economic powers, and positively change the country’s macroeconomic characteristics.
- Solve problems with countries in the region.
- Revolution of privatization of Iran’s economy. To eliminate corruption, rent-seeking, and the great change in the country’s economy and industry, the first and most important measure is the privatization and rescue of Iran from the state economy. In the last forty years, no government in Iran has succeeded in doing this important thing.
- Establish effective rules and regulations to attract tens of millions of Iranians abroad. There is great scientific, technical, political, economic, and financial potential in Iranians living abroad. During the last forty years, no government has been able to prevent the escape of the country’s brains and capitals. On this issue from the people’s view, the regime must beg for pardon from the people and step back and face justice for forty years of crime and destruction and this is the only real solution for Iran. Anything else is a waste of time.