Iran Nuclear NewsIran, Stuck in a Nuclear Quagmire, Is Playing for...

Iran, Stuck in a Nuclear Quagmire, Is Playing for Time

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The Mullahs in Iran after their 8-year destructive war with Iraq and finally accepting the cease-fire agreement found out that without a nuclear weapon and expansion of their terror ambitions in the Middle East and around the world, they would be not able to save their turbans.

The Secretariat of the National Council of Resistance stated on March 10, 1994, in which the regime’s latest decisions to acquire nuclear weapons were revealed at a meeting of the regime’s Supreme Security Council attended by the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

At this meeting, the regime’s heads decided to follow the line of the regime’s nuclearization, under the shadow of the world’s negligence.

With astronomical funds invested in this project, and the regimes’ success to hide its goals from public opinion, the regime’s access to a nuclear bomb was not out of the scope.

The regime would have been successful if its opposition, the National Council Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), did not reveal this with consciousness.

This is something that Iran’s state media has admitted constantly.

“Even though Iran had officially announced its determination to complete the Bushehr power plant and join the ranks of nuclear technology holders since the middle years of the imposed war (Iran-Iraq war), the pressure on the Islamic Republic dates to 2002; Where (Mojahedin) on 23 August of that year in a press conference keyed the project of pressure on nuclear Iran. (State-run news agency Tasnim, July 25, 2015)

In this way, the Iranian Resistance was able to trap the regime and prevent it from becoming a nuclear power. The issuance of several UN Security Council resolutions in this regard in the highest international authority and global sanctions created a great obstacle to the regime’s progress in nuclearization.

Because of the international appeasement policy with the regime and its continuation after a series of erosive negotiations, the major world powers, known as the P5+1, issued an agreement with the regime called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). But despite the hollow hopes of the P5+1, this did prevent the regime from following up its nuclear ambitions.

Ali Akbar Salehi, the then head of the regime’s Atomic Energy Organization, revealed on August 28, 2017, during a discussion on pouring cement into the Arak reactor, the regime’s intention to maintain the nuclear bomb project:

“From the start, some photos created by Photoshop showed that cement was poured into the hole and the main tank of the reactor and the upper part of it. We must declare that no cement was poured into the main hole, we only poured cement into the pipes that were taken out for renovation. There are similar ones in the country, and we can bring them back if we want. No cement poured in the main hole of the reactor, we waited two years and did not talk about it because we could not say anything.” (ISNA, August 28, 2017)

The US withdrawal from the nuclear deal on May 8, 2018, formally invalidated the deal.

As the new US administration took office, the regime thought that the US would unconditionally return to the 2015 JCPOA and lift the sanctions imposed under the Trump administration, but time has shown that this speculation has no base. And it is spinning on another heel. The most important reasons for this can be listed in four areas:

  1. The serious protests of Iran’s people in the past years have increased the price of appeasement with the regime and this policy is now on the corner.
  2. Its democratic alternative has been removed from all black terrorist groups lists and its members are now in Albania out of the regime’s reach, therefore despite their situation in Iraq now the regime is under attack.
  3. The regime is not able to use its terror and hostage-taking levers to put pressure on the negotiating counterparts.
  4. The P5+1 countries while knowing the regime’s situation, did not accept to rejoin the JCPOA of 2015 and are expanding their demands to the regime’s missile and meddling in the Middle East projects.

The regime was aware that its only solution to return the balance between itself and the world powers is to increase the amount of its enriched uranium and violate the JCPOA’s commitments.

For this it was looking after two excuses:

  1. It had relative confidence that the new government in the US, will not take any military action against the regime or at least in a short time.
  2. By dragging and slowing down the negations it hoped to be able to reach the nuclear bomb to prevent any new deal and a JCPOA for its human rights, missile, and terrorism cases.

The resumption of Vienna talks made it clear to the negotiators that the regime is seeking to buy time to reach an irreversible point of achieving an atomic bomb.

US State Department spokesman Ned Price announced on December 9, 2021: “It is precisely why we have been very clear that Iran will not be able to play for time, that Iran’s nuclear escalations and its provocations won’t give Iran any additional leverage in these negotiations. The only thing these provocations and these escalations will do is to bring us closer to the point of a potential crisis.”

With the deadlock in the Vienna talks and the growing atmosphere of mistrust between the two sides, there are now two more options left for the regime:

  1. Accepting a JCPOA Plus, which, according to Khamenei, means ‘endless degradation.’
  2. Withdrawal from the negotiations and returning to the era before the JCPOA which means that its nuclear case will move to the Security Council, with the effect of the return of all sanctions of that council and facing Chapter 7 of the UN Charter including the activation of the trigger mechanism.

Given this deadly dilemma, Khamenei can no longer benefit as much as he did before by buying time. This is a fruitless game in the nuclear trap and will have serious consequences for the regime. Although negotiations are not yet fully concluded, there are whispers of a military option.

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