Iran’s nuclear case is entering a very dangerous phase. The conflicts between this regime and the US government are intensifying and are increasing this concern that the revival of the JCPOA is becoming impossible.
Enrique Mora the representative of the EU in the negotiations said previously that they are speaking about weeks and not months to reach an agreement with the regime, and analyzers interpreted this period as the left chance until the 2015 JCPOA lose its meaning and purpose.
After a call between the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his European counterparts of France, Germany, and the UK, the Secretary’s spokesperson Ned Price stated:
“The Secretary and his counterparts also discussed their shared concerns about the pace of developments in Iran’s nuclear program as time runs short for Tehran to return to the JCPOA.” (Office of the Spokesperson, December 29, 2021)
This indicates clearly that the regime has entered the crisis phase and extending the negotiation time is becoming impossible for them.
On the other side, every desk is prepared for any negotiation both sides of the desk are obligated to put their concessions on the desk and play with their cards, to reach any agreement. And, that one who is not able to make a deal has the lower hand in the negotiation and is in a deadlock.
And the envoys of the countries participating in these erosive negotiations, as much as they should be in love with the appeasement policy with this regime, are not sitting behind the desk with the regime’s envoy to blindly accept the demands of this regime.
“Of course, the last couple rounds also started with new nuclear provocations and then were characterized by, in some cases, vague, unrealistic, unconstructive positions on the part of Iran.
“Iran has, at best, been dragging its feet in the talks while accelerating its nuclear escalations. We’ve been very clear that that won’t work. Iran needs to exercise restraint in its nuclear program and add real urgency in Vienna.” (Ned Price, US Department of State briefing, December 28, 2021)
Even the regime’s temporary allies know that this path taken by the regime is very dangerous and by supporting the regime they will not survive the dangers of this path. Therefore, all of them are agree on it that the regime should not be allowed to get access to a nuclear bomb, and this must be prevented.
“All the while, however, we have made the point that we are not sitting on our hands. We are actively engaging with our allies and partners, both in the P5+1 context, but also beyond that to include our regional partners on alternatives. And we are very ready and willing to pursue those alternatives if Iran demonstrates that it is not sincere and steadfast in negotiating a potential return to compliance with the JCPOA.” (Ned Price, US Department of State briefing, December 28, 2021)
The regime is really on the horns of a dilemma. It must choose between continuing with full speed its nuclear games to reach the atom bomb or to accept the demands of the negotiating countries, sit back and accept its collapse while facing intensifying protests.
The situation is so critical for the regime that it fears giving suppressive orders while the number of daily protests is increasing, which will finally result in a nationwide protest like in November 2019. And nearing this horizon many of the regime elements and officials are begging the head of their regime to accept the negotiations, and retreat from its maximalist demands.
“Such a situation is like a time bomb planted under the skin of our society. Underestimate this potential danger and the day this time bomb explodes, there will be nothing left of the (regime).” (Stater-run daily Jahan-e Sanat, February 28, 2021)